Autism Squeaks
Anybody who works in a trading room tuned to CNBC is extremely tired of the Autism Speaks commercials that have been playing for the last few months. If the following post seems overly cruel, it is hard to be dispassionate about a set of commercials that have caused so much pain to so many people.
The commercials begin with a statistically unlikely possibility for "your" child, and then close with the odds that "your" child will be diagnosed with autism. "The chances of your child growing up to appear in a Playboy Centerfold are one in fortyfive thousand. The chances of your child being diagnosed with Autism, are one in one hundred and sixty six."
They are odd, nearly nonsensical pieces. After all, if your child is over eight, the probability of that child being diagnosed with Autism is either 1 or 0, with nothing in between, and certainly not 1:166. Similarly, the probability of the children of people in trading rooms having illustrious career paths is slightly higher than the probability of the population at large, and that probability is different for every family, depending on their predispositions and gifts. Only the bossiest commercials assign personal probabilities to highly conditioned events, and it is not completely clear from the commercial whether autism is even a problem, or whether they are calling attention to the greater social evil of rampant autism diagnoses.
But what does it take to get a diagnosis of Autism around here? High-functioning autism can include "a facility with numbers, a need for repetition, and a difficulty generalizing from the concrete to the abstract". The Autism Speaks commerical satisfies all three diagnostic criteria in a mere thirty seconds.
Another diagnostic criteria of Autism is emotional blindness and insensitivity that can be mistaken for rudeness. For example, if the rumors are true, and Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies is financing those commercials, then it is insensitive to the point of sadism for him to use the alpha that he has removed from other portfolio managers to repetitively inflict a commerical that repeatedly irritates his former and current victims.
People usually bracket Simons' interest in Autism research by mentioning that his daughter is severely Autistic. But the rule of thumb is that a daughter's brain has a closer relationship to her father's brain than does a son's brain, and it is quite likely that, just as James Joyce was a high-functioning schizophrenic with a low-functioning schizophrenic daughter, Jim Simons is a high-functioning Autistic with a low-functioning Autistic daughter.
While we're diagnosing Autism, the success of Renaissance Technologies could even be reduced to the central conjuncture of an emotionless person exploiting the mood-swings of over-emotional people. Jim Simons' ability to treat the emotions of the market as pure information rather than as contageous panic or thrilling euphoria has allowed him to quantify that information in extremely profitable ways, and it is sad if the only thing he can think of doing with his billions is to study the structure of his own brain. So, my response to the commercial is that "The chances of my child growing up to be in a broadway show are zero in fifteen thousand. The chances that this commercial will do more good than harm are one in ten thousand, and the chances of the people responsible for this commercial being diagnosed with Autism are 1 in 1."
The commercials begin with a statistically unlikely possibility for "your" child, and then close with the odds that "your" child will be diagnosed with autism. "The chances of your child growing up to appear in a Playboy Centerfold are one in fortyfive thousand. The chances of your child being diagnosed with Autism, are one in one hundred and sixty six."
They are odd, nearly nonsensical pieces. After all, if your child is over eight, the probability of that child being diagnosed with Autism is either 1 or 0, with nothing in between, and certainly not 1:166. Similarly, the probability of the children of people in trading rooms having illustrious career paths is slightly higher than the probability of the population at large, and that probability is different for every family, depending on their predispositions and gifts. Only the bossiest commercials assign personal probabilities to highly conditioned events, and it is not completely clear from the commercial whether autism is even a problem, or whether they are calling attention to the greater social evil of rampant autism diagnoses.
But what does it take to get a diagnosis of Autism around here? High-functioning autism can include "a facility with numbers, a need for repetition, and a difficulty generalizing from the concrete to the abstract". The Autism Speaks commerical satisfies all three diagnostic criteria in a mere thirty seconds.
Another diagnostic criteria of Autism is emotional blindness and insensitivity that can be mistaken for rudeness. For example, if the rumors are true, and Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies is financing those commercials, then it is insensitive to the point of sadism for him to use the alpha that he has removed from other portfolio managers to repetitively inflict a commerical that repeatedly irritates his former and current victims.
People usually bracket Simons' interest in Autism research by mentioning that his daughter is severely Autistic. But the rule of thumb is that a daughter's brain has a closer relationship to her father's brain than does a son's brain, and it is quite likely that, just as James Joyce was a high-functioning schizophrenic with a low-functioning schizophrenic daughter, Jim Simons is a high-functioning Autistic with a low-functioning Autistic daughter.
While we're diagnosing Autism, the success of Renaissance Technologies could even be reduced to the central conjuncture of an emotionless person exploiting the mood-swings of over-emotional people. Jim Simons' ability to treat the emotions of the market as pure information rather than as contageous panic or thrilling euphoria has allowed him to quantify that information in extremely profitable ways, and it is sad if the only thing he can think of doing with his billions is to study the structure of his own brain. So, my response to the commercial is that "The chances of my child growing up to be in a broadway show are zero in fifteen thousand. The chances that this commercial will do more good than harm are one in ten thousand, and the chances of the people responsible for this commercial being diagnosed with Autism are 1 in 1."