The key to the market cycle?

If 500 people think that there is a 50.5% chance of event A, when those 500 people are asked to choose between A and not A, they will say A. A "poll" of those 500 opinions would reveal 100% support of A, and while each individual may start with a tenuous personal assessment of A, those doubts would evaporate in the face of such overwhelming group support.