Friday, November 21, 2008

the fixed income markets hurt more than the S&P

Bonds are for wise old men, while stocks are young man's game. Stocks speak in ambiguous poetry, but bonds communicate in clear prose.

When the stock market crashes, nobody knows what the new prices mean. Are half the stocks worthless, while the other half are worth twice their value, but nobody can sort them out? Is it a wave of panic selling from hedge fund liquidation?

The twenty percent change in the return on the thirty year bond is telling us that monetary policy will neither default nor inflate, and that we are looking at a full generation of pain before things even begin to brighten a little.


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